Why people recommend it
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a compelling exploration into the science and art of predictive accuracy, demonstrating how certain individuals consistently foresee future events better than others. Marc Andreessen brought up the work on The Ben & Marc Show, observing that Philip Tetlock conducted a comprehensive study on political predictions which led to the conclusion that the average credentialed expert is less likely to be correct than random chance. Stephen Dubner also discussed the book on Freakonomics Radio, explaining that the author argued that thoughtful amateurs can frequently outperform seasoned domain experts when it comes to forecasting the future. Additionally, Annie Duke referenced the title on People I (Mostly) Admire, mentioning that the author reached out to her to collaborate on research regarding counterfactual forecasting. Throughout these podcast appearances, speakers highlighted how the book challenges traditional notions of expertise, demonstrating that structured reasoning and probabilistic thinking can significantly improve forecasting outcomes across various complex domains like politics and economics, making it an essential read for anyone interested in decision-making and cognitive bias.
Who recommended it
- Stephen Dubner Discussed
- Annie Duke Discussed
- Marc Andreessen Recommended
Stephen Dubner — 1 mention
“Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.”
Annie Duke — 1 mention
“During co Phil Tetlock, who wrote super forecasting, sure, reached out to me and asked me to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him.”
Marc Andreessen — 1 mention
“Phil Tetlock, a professor studying this topic, wrote a comprehensive study on political predictions, leading to the conclusion that the average credentialed expert is less than random likely to be correct.”
Also mentioned in the same episodes
Other mentions (2: passing, ad reads, own books)
“during covid Phil tetlock who wrote super forecast day sure reached out to me and asked me to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him”
“Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.”