Book · 2015 · Business & Economics
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner has been mentioned in 13 episodes across 9 podcasts (5 episodes recommend it and 8 episodes discuss it), through . Most frequently brought up by Annie Duke (4 episodes), Stephen Dubner (2 episodes) and Dan Rasmussen (1 episode) on a16z Podcast (2 episodes), Freakonomics Radio (2 episodes) and Invest Like the Best (2 episodes).
- episodes
- 13
- podcasts
- 9
- people
- 9
- episodes recommend it
- 5
Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.
Stephen Dubner · Freakonomics Radio · Sep 2026 Questions about Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Who recommends Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner on podcasts?
Annie Duke (1 episode), Stephen Dubner (1 episode), Dan Rasmussen (1 episode), Marc Andreessen (1 episode) and Michael Mauboussin (1 episode) have recommended Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner on podcasts. In all, 9 people brought it up across 9 podcasts (5 people recommended it).
Which podcasts mention Superforecasting the most?
a16z Podcast (2 episodes), Freakonomics Radio (2 episodes), Invest Like the Best (2 episodes), This Week in Startups (2 episodes) and EconTalk (1 episode), among 9 podcasts in all.
Is Superforecasting recommended, or only discussed?
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner was recommended in 5 episodes and discussed without a recommendation in 8 episodes, as of 2026-09-18.
What do people say about Superforecasting?
Stephen Dubner on Freakonomics Radio (2026-09-18): "Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur."
When was Superforecasting last mentioned on a podcast?
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner was last discussed on Freakonomics Radio by Stephen Dubner on 2026-09-18.
What they say about it
- Discusses author Philip Tetlock3
- Notes it as a how-to guide“tells you how to become a forecaster”2
The best things said about it
What your book proves among a lot of things that are interesting, I think the most fascinating, the most uplifting, really, is that this is a skill or maybe set of skills that can be acquired or improved upon, right?
Stephen Dubner Freakonomics Radio · Jan 2016 Superforecasting, which is a wonderful book people should get it.
Annie Duke The Jordan Harbinger Show · Dec 2022 The book is both a how-to, if at a rather high level, and a cautionary tale.
Stephen Dubner Freakonomics Radio · Jan 2016 Basically tells you how to become a forecaster. And one of the key things is writing down why you made the decision right as you're making the decision and after you've made it.
Jason Calacanis This Week in Startups · May 2025 Where and when it comes up
How it comes up
9 people who brought it up
- Annie Duke4 episodes · recommended in 1
- Stephen Dubner2 episodes · recommended in 1
- Dan Rasmussen1 episode · recommended in 1
Marc Andreessen1 episode · recommended in 1- Michael Mauboussin1 episode · recommended in 1
- Jason Calacanis2 episodes
- Daryl Morey1 episode
Philip Tetlock1 episode- Steven Johnson1 episode
Why people recommend it
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a renowned guide on how individuals can improve their predictive accuracy by treating beliefs as hypotheses to be tested rather than treasures to be protected. Marc Andreessen mentioned the book on The Ben & Marc Show, highlighting Tetlock's research that average credentialed experts perform worse than random chance when making political predictions. On The Tim Ferriss Show, Michael Mauboussin quoted a favorite line from the text regarding beliefs as hypotheses for his metaphorical billboard. Annie Duke discussed her early conversations with Tetlock on The Jordan Harbinger Show, while Dan Rasmussen on Invest Like the Best named the author and his books as major influences on his thinking about forecasting. Stephen Dubner spoke with Tetlock on Freakonomics Radio about the uplifting reality that forecasting is an acquirable skill, and later returned to the book on the same podcast to discuss how thoughtful amateurs can outperform domain experts. Jason Calacanis brought up the title on two separate episodes of This Week in Startups, emphasizing its advice on documenting decisions right as they are made to improve future choices.
Every mention
Annie Duke one of the first conversations I had with Phil telek who wrote super forecasting um which is a wonderful bo… 4
“one of the first conversations I had with Phil telek who wrote super forecasting um which is a wonderful book people should get it”
“and one of them was Phil tetlock author of super forecasting uh really brilliant man”
“Phil Tetlock has done work on this, who wrote super forecasting, but a lot of his earlier work was on sort of cognitive styles.”
“And this is something like Phil Tutlock, I'm sure a lot of people are familiar with super forecasting, talks a lot about.”
Stephen Dubner What your book proves among a lot of things that are interesting, I think the most fascinating, the most up… 2
“Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.”
“He tells the story in a new book called Superforecasting, co-authored by the journalist Dan Gardner. The book is both a how-to, if at a rather high level, and a cautionary tale”
“That's how he puts it in his book, Super Forecasting. The other conclusion has to do with what sets any one forecaster above the crowd. It's not really who they are, Tetlock writes, it's what they do.”
“What your book proves among a lot of things that are interesting, I think the most fascinating, the most uplifting, really, is that this is a skill or maybe set of skills that can be acquired or improved upon, right?”
Dan Rasmussen The single most influential thinker to me is Philip Tetlock. I mean, I think his book, expert political jud… 1
“The single most influential thinker to me is Philip Tetlock. I mean, I think his book, expert political judgment, and then more recently, super forecasting, and he's one of Daniel Kahneman students.”
“And even Tetlock says, you know, interestingly enough, in his super forecaster study, he actually does not just stop, his super forecasters don't tend to just stop at the base rates. They actually do make individual more qualitative adjustments at the end after they've finished doing a base rate assessment.”
Marc Andreessen Phil Tetlock, a professor studying this topic, wrote a comprehensive study on political predictions, leadin… 1
“Phil Tetlock, a professor studying this topic, wrote a comprehensive study on political predictions, leading to the conclusion that the average credentialed expert is less than random likely to be correct.”
Michael Mauboussin There's just a quote which I love and I find myself repeating it often and it says, "Beliefs are hypotheses… 1
“There's just a quote which I love and I find myself repeating it often and it says, "Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected."”
Jason Calacanis and there's another book um super forecasters I don't know if you know that book yeah yeah pretty it all ba… 2
“Cuz this is there's a really good book, Super Forecasting. I don't know if you ever read it, but basically tells you how to become a forecaster. And one of the key things is writing down why you made the decision right as you're making the decision and after you've made it.”
“and there's another book um super forecasters I don't know if you know that book yeah yeah pretty it all basically the premise there is um record how you make a decision so you can make better decisions in the future”
Daryl Morey The good judgment project is interesting. Super forecasting. I don't know if you've talked to Tetlock. Yeah… 1
“The good judgment project is interesting. Super forecasting. I don't know if you've talked to Tetlock. Yeah. But the use of Breyer scores and things like that give you a good sense over time.”
Philip Tetlock Tetlock makes clear, unless you have a very good grip on probability. We talk in the book with a great poke… 1
“Tetlock makes clear, unless you have a very good grip on probability. We talk in the book with a great poker player, Aaron Brown, who's the chief risk officer of AQR.”
Steven Johnson it's a great question so so just to clarify it so comes all this famous study that Philip tetlock did super… 1
“it's a great question so so just to clarify it so comes all this famous study that Philip tetlock did super forecasting yeah and expert political judgment”
Other mentions (6: passing, ad reads, own books)
“And then of course as prediction markets like poly market help us do you you you want to kind of go through some predictions a great book super predictor or super predictions what was that book super forecaster super thank you”
“during covid Phil tetlock who wrote super forecast day sure reached out to me and asked me to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him”
“We do a lot of scorecarding. We do a lot of, okay, let's understand how much do we know the market and how are we good or not at super forecasting things. The super forecaster book is actually on the welcome Renegade kit along with other books.”
“Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.”
“He is the author, along with Dan Gardner, of Superforecasting, the Art and Science of Prediction,”
“I want to talk about your new book, Superforecasting, The Art and Science of Prediction, that you wrote with Dan Gardner, who, like me, I think is still based in Ottawa.”