Mentioned in Podcasts

Episode · Freakonomics Radio · 2026-09-18

Books mentioned on 687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

1 book · With Robin Hanson, Nicole Kagan, Tarek Mansour · Listen · Watch on YouTube

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports.

Stephen Dubner discussed Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and others.

Books mentioned, in the order they came up

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  1. Superforecasting

    Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner · at 21:40

    Superforecasting by Philip E.

    Discussed
    “Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.”
    Stephen Dubner 687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just A… 2026-09-18
    Where to get it
    AmazonListen on Audible
Link to this list from the episode’s show notes

For the whole show, see the Freakonomics Radio page.