Episode · Freakonomics Radio · 2026-09-18

Books mentioned on 687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

1 book · With Robin Hanson, Nicole Kagan, Tarek Mansour · Listen · Watch on YouTube

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, 90 percent of the action is sports.

Books mentioned, in the order they came up

1. 

   Superforecasting

   Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner · at 21:40

   Philip E.

   Discussed

   “Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.”

   Stephen Dubner 687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just A… 2026-09-18 Listen at 21:40

   Where to get it

   Amazon Audible Bookshop.org Open Library