Book · 2017 · Political Science
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition
Why people recommend it
Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock is an influential work exploring how experts forecast future events and why their predictions often fail to outperform basic statistical models. The book has received notable attention across several prominent podcast discussions regarding forecasting and decision-making. On Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, Nate Silver referenced Philip Tetlock's book while examining how prediction markets encourage experts to make quantifiable, probabilistic predictions instead of vague assertions. Silver noted the value of consulting Tetlock's research when studying political analysis and forecasting behavior. Similarly, Michael Mauboussin discussed the book on The Tim Ferriss Show, recalling that Tetlock's work was the first he read of the author's during the mid-2000s. Mauboussin used the occasion to highlight Tetlock's groundbreaking studies on expert predictions, illuminating the cognitive limits of human forecasters and the persistent illusions of expertise that pervade political and economic commentary. Through these mentions, commentators have repeatedly turned to Tetlock's empirical findings to illustrate the mechanics of sound decision-making, the dangers of overconfidence, and the structural limitations inherent in professional political forecasting.
Who recommended it
- Nate Silver Discussed
- Michael Mauboussin Discussed
Nate Silver — 1 mention
“if you read Phil tatlock's book that you referenced Maria expert political judgment”
Michael Mauboussin — 1 mention
“you know, Phil Tetlock's the first book I read of his was in the mid I think 2006 2007 called expert political judgment”
Also mentioned in the same episodes
Other mentions (1: passing, ad reads, own books)
“The first big set of forecasting tournaments were done in the late 80s and the early 90s and were reported in a book, Expert Political Judgment, that came out in 2005.”