Episode · Freakonomics Radio · 2013-08-22
Books mentioned on The Folly of Prediction (Rebroadcast)
Human beings love to predict the future, but we're quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
Stephen Dubner discussed Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock.
Books mentioned, in the order they came up
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Expert Political Judgment
Expert Political Judgment by Philip E.
Discussed“The study became the basis of a book Tetlock published a few years ago called Expert Political Judgment. There were two major rounds of data collection, the first beginning in 1988, the other in 1992.”
Where to get it
Other mentions in this episode (2) — ad reads, self-promotion and passing references, never counted
Passing Fooled by Randomness
“That's Nassim Taleb the author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. It's much costlier for us as a race to make the mistake of not seeing a leopard than have the illusion of pattern”
Passing The Black Swan
“That's Nassim Taleb the author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. It's much costlier for us as a race to make the mistake of not seeing a leopard than have the illusion of pattern”
