Book · 2015 · Business & Economics
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Why people recommend it
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner's book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction explores the cognitive habits and methodologies that allow ordinary people to successfully forecast future global events with remarkable accuracy. The insights from the book frequently inform discussions surrounding data analysis, decision-making, and risk assessment. On Freakonomics Radio, Stephen Dubner referenced Tetlock's research to introduce the fascinating premise that thoughtful amateurs can frequently outperform seasoned domain experts when it comes to predicting the future. Additionally, Annie Duke discussed the book on People I (Mostly) Admire while recounting her professional collaboration with the author. Duke explained that Philip Tetlock reached out to her after writing the book to ask her to participate in joint research regarding counterfactual forecasting. These mentions demonstrate how the book's core concepts continue to influence experts across different fields, challenging traditional notions of expertise and encouraging a more systematic, analytical approach to understanding uncertainty and anticipating future outcomes in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
Who recommended it
- Stephen Dubner Discussed
- Annie Duke Discussed
Stephen Dubner — 1 mention
“Tetlock argued in his book super forecasting that when it comes to predicting the future, even an expert can be beat by a thoughtful amateur.”
Annie Duke — 1 mention
“During co Phil Tetlock, who wrote super forecasting, sure, reached out to me and asked me to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him.”
Also mentioned in the same episodes
Other mentions (1: passing, ad reads, own books)
“Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.”